THE TRILLION·DOLLAR HOME

How AI, automation, and a changing housing stock could reshape the economics of caring for American homes.

Independent research on the future of home services: from coordination to execution, and the value created around them.

Flagship thesis

Homes Have No Memory

Why orchestration becomes the control point in home services.

A structural thesis on how AI collapses discovery, reduces coordination costs, and makes persistent home context the most valuable asset in the home-services economy.

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Economic model

The 2036 Model

A bottom-up model of the U.S. home-services economy.

Demand, prices, AI adoption, probot penetration, and the value pools that emerge by 2036. The summary model is live inside the flagship thesis; the full essay is in progress.

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What we study

The forces reshaping the home-services economy.

AI Coordination

How AI lowers transaction costs and unlocks suppressed demand.

Physical Automation

How probots and machines change the cost and availability of execution.

Housing Economics

How an aging housing stock, inflation, and demographics drive long-term demand.

Home Memory

Why persistent home context becomes infrastructure for decisions and outcomes.

Value Pools

Where economic value accrues as the industry evolves.

Agentic Commerce

How delegated budgets and programmable payments change how services are bought.

148M
U.S. housing units in 2025 · 82.9M owner-occupied
~$400B
Estimated core market in 2026
~$1T
Modeled market by 2036